Modelling Climate Change Impact on Soil Loss in Tokat

Abstract

Understanding the potential impact of climate change requires implementing effective planning strategies in hillside terrain and mountainous areas. Many studies have been carried out with erosion models in the Tokat region, much less with the WEPP model.  Thus, keeping this in view, the study aims to estimate the possible impact of projected climate change scenarios on soil loss and erosion vulnerability using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), MarkSim Weather Generator, and Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model.  The present study downscaled four climate scenarios on the near future, noted the 2020 s (2010), mid-future, 2035 s, and 2065, far-future, and 2095 s under GFLD-CM3 with four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), 2.5, 4.5, 6.5 and 8.5 scenarios. GFLD-CM3 and RCP scenarios predicted increased temperature and annual rainfall depth during the 21st century. The calibrated WEPP model was used to simulate future soil loss. The study's findings showed a possibility for climate change to increase the rate of soil loss unless conservation strategies or proper land use plans are implemented.